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The most expensive property for sale right now in the US is a sprawling mansion on the coast of Florida.

刻下在好意思国市集上最贵的房产是一栋位于佛罗里达州海岸的豪华大宅。

It's listed at nearly $300 million, and according to First Street flood maps, it's all but guaranteed to flood in the next 30 years.

它的售价接近3亿好意思元， 而字据First Street的激流舆图，它在改日30年内果然确定会碰到激流。

Just up the coast, hurricanes Helene and Milton flooded thousands of homes.

就在海岸近邻，飓风海伦和米顿同一了屡见不鲜的房屋。

Now, homeowners post hurricane flooded houses for sale as is at steep discounts.

刻下，房东将被飓风吹袭的房屋以近况大幅打折出售。

But even as disasters and insurance rates make news across the Sunbelt, the population of the south just keeps rising.

但即便灾害和保障费率在阳光带上成为新闻，南部地区的东说念主口仍在合手续增长。

Ever since the widespread use of air conditioning, Americans have been flocking to the warm sunny south.

自从空调无为使用以来，好意思国东说念主纷纷涌向和缓阳光满盈的南边。

And during the pandemic, that trend really escalated.

而且在疫情时间，这一趋势变得愈加彰着。

- We saw a big spike in migration to places like Florida, Texas, Arizona, the Sunbelt region during the pandemic, and that was largely brought on by low mortgage rates and also remote work, allowing people to live in new parts of the country and still keep their old jobs - Record breaking heat, destructive wildfires, floods, and of course hurricanes have pushed many parts of the south onto the list of riskiest places to live.

- 疫情时间，咱们看到多数东说念主口迁移至佛罗里达、德克萨斯、亚利桑那以及阳光地带等地区，这一时局主要归因于低典质贷款利率以及而已使命样式的提升，使得东说念主们大概在国度的新区域假寓，同期保留原有的使命。- 关联词，创记录的高温、阻碍性野火、激流以及不能幸免的飓风，已将南边许多地区推上了生涯风险最高地区的名单。尽管如斯，为何东说念主们仍收敛迁往这些场地呢？

So why do people keep moving there?

那么为什么东说念主们还一直往那处搬呢？

And will that ever change?

这种情况会编削吗？

We're going to figure out the one place where that trend has already reversed because the reasons for its population decline gives us a good idea of when people might start leaving places like Florida.

咱们将找出阿谁趋势仍是逆转的场地，因为其东说念主口减少的原因为咱们提供了踪迹，让咱们能大致预测东说念主们何时可能初始离开佛罗里达等地区。

And there's an even more dangerous population trend that's catching homeowners and insurance companies off guard.

而且，还有一个更为危机的东说念主口趋势，正让房东和保障公司措手不足。

So stay tuned to learn what the future holds for the south.

敬请温雅，了解改日南边将靠近何种场地。

(curious music) The south is truly ground zero for most of the extreme weather we currently face, and nearly all of it is projected to get worse in the future.

南边照实是刻下咱们靠近的大多数极点天气的重灾地，而且果然悉数的情况齐被预测在改日会变得更糟。

But where are the riskiest parts of the region?

但该地区哪些部分风险最大？

Well, let's take a look.

好吧，让咱们来望望。

As I know firsthand from living in a place like Atlanta, the south is no stranger to extreme heat and that heat keeps getting worse.

就我住在亚特兰大这么的场地切躯壳验而言，南边对极点高温并不生分， 而且这种高温还在收敛加重。

The hottest city in the US, Phoenix, Arizona, is also one of the fastest growing cities.

好意思国最热的城市，亚利桑那州的菲尼克斯，亦然增长最快的城市之一。

In 2024, it broke its own heat record with 70 days over 110 degrees.

2024年，凤凰城贯穿70天的温度朝上110度，冲破了自己的高温记录。

And on top of that heat, the south is also likely to experience more extreme precipitation in the future.

而且在这些高温之上，改日南边地区也可能履历更极点的降水。

The US experienced as much as $500 billion of flood damage in 2024.

好意思国在2024年碰到了高达5000亿好意思元的激流弃世。

And a recent study showed that extreme precipitation events are expected to get worse as the climate warms.

最近的一项筹商标明，跟着景色变暖，极点降水事件预测会变得愈加严重。

And sea level rise will make many coastal towns uninhabitable.

何况海平面上升将使许多沿海城镇无法居住。

By 2100, we can expect around three to six feet of sea level rise along the southeast and Gulf coast, which would be devastating.

到2100年， 咱们不错预测东南部和墨西哥湾沿岸的海平面将上升约3到6英尺，这将是一场晦气。

But remember, extreme precipitation will also be getting worse.

但请记着，极点降水情况也会变得愈加严重。

So if we add a 100 year flood to that sea level rise map, the results are catastrophic.

是以要是咱们把百年一遇的激流加入到海平面上升的舆图中，执法将是晦气性的。

Sea level rise and coastal flooding are impacts we are just not prepared for.

海平面上升和沿海洪灾是咱们尚未作念好莽撞准备的影响。

Honestly, neither is that $300 million home.

直露说，那栋价值3亿好意思元的豪宅也一样毫无准备。

And of course, many of those places exposed to sea level rise are also experiencing larger and more devastating hurricanes.

固然，许多靠近海平面上升胁迫的场地，也正履历着规模更大、阻碍力更强的飓风。

- The warmer ocean temperatures made the hurricanes bigger and stronger and they push more water than would've been the case in the past.

海水温度升高使得飓风变得更大更强，它们鞭策的水量比昔时更多。

And there's no reason to think that that's just gonna stop happening in the future.

而且莫得事理以为这种情况在改日会罢手发生。

- I'm not saying that the rest of the country is safe from climate change.

我并不是说国内其他地区就能免受景色变化的影响。

Far from it, actually.

骨子情况远非如斯。

Places that we once thought of as climate havens have experienced some of the most destruction in the last few years.

咱们曾以为的景色避风港，在昔时几年里却碰到了最为严重的阻碍。

But if you look at the layered risks that the southeast is up against, it's clearly a particularly dangerous place to live.

但要是你望望东南部靠近的层层风险，很彰着那是一个止境危机的居住地。

But have all these climate disasters impacted people's decisions?

然而，悉数这些景色灾害是否影响了东说念主们的决定？

- People usually think of those disasters as being one off or maybe part of the deal if you're living in a place like Florida, and it doesn't really disrupt the way that people think about buying a home.

- 东说念主们闲居以为这些晦气是偶发事件， 或是在像佛罗里达这么的场地生涯所必须承担的风险，并不会确凿影响东说念主们购房的决策样式。

- But this hurricane season must be different, right?

但这个飓风季必须有所不同，对吧？

We asked Daryl if she thinks the combination of Hurricane Helene and Milton could be a tipping point for real estate in Florida.telegram 反差

咱们筹商达里尔，她是否定为飓风海伦和米尔顿的团结可能成为佛罗里达州房地产的转念点。

- For most natural disasters, what happens is that there'll be a slowdown in housing market activity, fewer were listing, fewer sales during the disaster and for some time after disaster, say a few weeks, and then there'll be a recovery period where sales go back up.

对于大多数当然灾害来说， 情况是房地产市集行为会放缓，上市房源减少， 晦气时间及灾后一段时刻内，比如几周，销售量也会减少， 然后会有一个销售回升的收复期。

And if you look at the overall picture for a whole year, you usually don't notice any one disaster.

而且要是你纵不雅全年举座情况，闲居不会看重到某一次灾害。

- So even if one area suffers huge losses, the rest of the state can rebound shockingly quickly.

是以即使一个地区碰到了巨大弃世，该州的其他地区也能惊东说念主地飞快收复。

Those losses do highlight the risk of hurricanes, wind, or wildfires, which could decrease demand.

这些弃世照实凸显了飓风、大风或野火的风险，这些灾害可能会裁汰需求。

Instead, we often see home prices nearby going up because there is less housing supply in the region and lots of sudden competition between buyers.

相悖，咱们频频见到近邻房价飞腾，原因在于该地区住房供应减少，买家间倏得深刻多数竞争。

Extreme events can have a long-term impact if they're part of a trend and a recent study showed a strong correlation between rising homeowners insurance costs and climate risk.

极点事件要是成为一种趋势，可能会产滋弥远影响，最近的一项筹商炫耀，跟着房东保障本钱的上升，景色风险也权贵增多。

- Florida does have the most expensive home insurance in the country and by a pretty substantial margin.

佛罗里达照实领有宇宙最贵的房屋保障，而且差距特别大。

Residents in Florida are literally paying four, four and a half, sometimes even five, times as much for home insurance as the average American.

佛罗里达州的住户骨子上为房屋保障支付的用度是好意思国平均水平的四倍、四倍半，有时以致是五倍。

- With premiums so high, 15 to 20% of Floridians have chosen not to have homeowners insurance at all.

由于保费如斯兴隆，15%到20%的佛罗里达东说念主弃取根蒂不购买房屋保障。

That's twice the US average, putting people at high risk when disaster strikes.

这一比例是好意思国平均水平的两倍，使得东说念主们在晦气莅临时靠近极高的风险。

- I think those ongoing expenses, those monthly expenses, that's where people really start to realize that these costs are not one-off and that they are going to be an ongoing expense for them if they choose to buy in a risky area.

我以为这些合手续的开支， 这些每月的开支，才是东说念主们确凿意志到这些用度不是一次性支拨， 而是要是他们弃取在高风险地区购房， 这些用度将会成为他们合手续的开支。

- So does that mean Florida is our one example of this Snowbelt to Sunbelt migration starting to change?

那么这是否意味着佛罗里达州是咱们看到的从雪带曙光光带迁移趋势初始编削的一个例子？

- [Daryl] So Miami saw a net outflow of people in 2023.

是以迈阿密在2023年出现了净东说念主口外流。

In Miami, almost 40% of homes face high flood risk.

在迈阿密，近40%的住宅靠近高激流风险。

And also Miami has gotten quite expensive.

而且迈阿密也变得特别不菲。

As climate change makes those Sunbelt destinations less affordable, they're gonna become less attractive.

跟着景色变化使得这些阳光地带的筹备地变得愈加不菲，它们对东说念主们的引诱力将会收缩。

- A recent analysis by the moving company Pods showed that Florida dropped down the list from number one to number three for people moving into the state.

最近，搬家公司Pods的一项分析炫耀，佛罗里达州在东说念主们迁入的州名次中从第一位下跌到了第三位。

But while migration has slowed a bit, that's far from a reversal in trends, and Florida continues to be a top migration destination.

但尽管迁移速率有所放缓，这远非趋势的逆转，佛罗里达州仍然是一个顶级的迁移筹备地。

- [Daryl] In general, people are leaving the most expensive metros, which tend to be on the coast, California, the Northeast, and moving to the Sunbelt.

总的来说， 东说念主们正离开那些最不菲的大齐市，这些场地闲居位于沿海、加州和东北部，然后搬到阳光带地区。

So everywhere from North Carolina through Florida, through Arizona, people go there for job opportunities, but also for the mild winters.

是以从北卡罗莱纳州到佛罗里达州，再到亚利桑那州， 东说念主们去那处是因为服务契机，还有那处的和善冬季。

And people are also leaving the Midwest because there aren't as many job opportunities there, and they have those harsh winters.

而且东说念主们也在离开中西部， 因为那处服务契机未几，而且冬季相配严寒。

- The top 20 places people are leaving are mostly expensive cities, and people are flocking to smaller metros and suburbs in Florida, Texas, Arizona, the Carolinas, and even Idaho.

名次前20位的离开地点大多是不菲的城市，而东说念主们正涌向佛罗里达、得克萨斯、亚利桑那、卡罗来纳以及以致爱达荷的较小的齐市区和郊区。

But there is one place in the south that has lost population for more than five years in a row.

但南边有一个场地贯穿五年以上东说念主口齐在减少。

And this place provides some important clues as to when other states might follow suit and why.

而这个场地提供了一些过失的踪迹，阐发其他州可能何时会步自后尘，以及原因。

Last year I traveled along the coastline of Louisiana and I was shocked to see so many abandoned homes flooded or knocked over by one of the many hurricanes that hit the area.

旧年我沿着路易斯安那州的海岸线旅行，令我惊怖的是，看到那么多被松手的房屋被激流同一或被进攻该地区的屡次飓风之一吹倒。

And the impact of Hurricane Katrina that happened 20 years ago was still so visible in New Orleans.

二十年前卡特里娜飓风的影响在新奥尔良依然了了可见。

If you look at billion dollar disasters since 1980, Louisiana ranks in the top three states and people have left.

要是你望望自1980年以来的十亿好意思元级晦气，路易斯安那州名次前三， 东说念主们仍是离开了。

From 2020 to 2023, the state lost 1.68% of its population.

从2020年到2023年，该州失去了1.68%的东说念主口。

- Louisiana has the second highest rates for home insurance in the nation, but Louisiana has the third lowest medium income of any state.

路易斯安那州的房屋保障费率在宇宙名法度二高，但该州的中等收入在宇宙名次倒数第三。

There's no state with a larger discrepancy between those numbers of income and a home insurance.

莫得一个州的收入和房屋保障用度之间的差距比路易斯安州更大。

In Louisiana, I think it's very possible that it is influencing some people's decisions.

在路易斯安那州，我以为很有可能这正在影响一些东说念主的决定。

- But why have other disaster prone Southern states not had the same fate?

但为什么其他易受灾害影响的南边州莫得碰到雷同的气运？

- Louisiana, it doesn't have the same job opportunities that Florida has.

路易斯安那州，它莫得佛罗里达州那样的服务契机。

It has a big oil and gas industry.

它领有普遍的石油和自然气产业。

And from what I understand, the tax structure is pretty beneficial to the oil and gas industry over residents.

据我所知，税收结构对石油和自然气行业比对住户更为故意。

High property taxes, you know, those could be substituted with high business taxes if they chose to.

高额的财产税，你知说念，这些不错被高额的企业税所替代，要是他们弃取这么作念的话。

So that might be why they're losing population.

是以这可能是他们东说念主口流失的原因。

- If you look at the list of billion dollar disasters, there's another telling number.

要是你望望那些弃世朝上十亿好意思元的晦气列表，还有一个很有阐发力的数字。

Not only has the state experienced the most expensive disasters in the US, but the ratio of disasters to GDP is unsustainably high.

该州不仅履历了好意思国最不菲的灾害，而且灾害与GDP的比例高到不能合手续。

Losing population can be a vicious cycle for a state.

东说念主口流失对一个州来说可能是一个恶性轮回。

Fewer people means a smaller tax base and less money to support public services.

东说念主口减少意味着税收基础缩小，用于救助群众服务的资金也随之减少。

Decreasing public services can lead to lower quality of life, causing more people to leave.

群众服务的减少可能导致生涯质地下跌，从而促使更多东说念主弃取离开。

When we visited the state in the summer of 2024, leaving was a major topic of conversation, but there is another region that has a high climate risk and just keeps growing.

当咱们2024年夏天探问该州时，离开是一个主要的策动话题，但另一个景色风险高且东说念主口合手续增长的地区也值得温雅。

- [Daryl] North Carolina has consistently been a top migration destination.

- [达里尔] 北卡罗来纳州一直是最受接待的侨民筹备地。

- [Maiya] The Pods analysis showed that the Carolinas accounted for 30% of the top 20 cities people are moving to.

- [Maiya] Pods分析炫耀，卡罗来纳地区占据了东说念主们迁往的前20个城市中的30%。

- The thing that North Carolina and South Carolina have going on for them is that they're good at building housing.

北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州的上风在于它们擅长竖立住房。

So I think that's why we continue to see these Carolina cities popping up on our top migration lists.

是以我以为这等于为什么咱们陆续看到这些卡罗来纳城市出刻下咱们顶级迁入名单上的原因。

- [Maiya] But as we saw with Hurricane Helene, North Carolina is not immune to climate change.

但正如咱们在飓风海伦中所见，北卡罗来纳州也并非免受景色变化的影响。

In fact, flood risk maps show the vulnerability of Western North Carolina, but very few that were in the path of Helene had flood insurance.

事实上， 激流风险舆图炫耀了北卡罗来纳州西部的脆弱性，但在赫伦旅途上的住户中， 很少有东说念主领有激流保障。

- Only about 7% of the homeowners in the path of the hurricane had flood insurance.

- 在飓风旅途上的房东中，仅有大要7%的东说念主购买了激流保障。

When you get over to North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, it was probably less than 1%.

当你到了北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州、田纳西州、弗吉尼亚州，可能还不到1%。

- And part of the problem is that people think they'll be bailed out.

问题的部分原因在于，东说念主们以为晦气发生后会获取调停。

- Of course, it's good to help people who are devastated after a major event, but if the process of continually doing post-disaster funding discourages anyone from recognizing how risky their home is, that's an unintended consequence that is very, very negative.

固然，匡助那些在要紧事件后堕入逆境的东说念主是功德，但要是合手续进行灾后资金援救的历程费劲了任何东说念主解析到他们的住悉数多危机，那将是一个相配相配负面的未必执法。

- It's great that places like the Carolinas are building housing rapidly.

像卡罗来纳这么的场地快速竖立住房很好。

There is a major housing deficit in many US cities, but if those homes are built in risky places and are left uninsured, well, that doesn't really help anyone.

许多好意思国城市正靠近严重的住房枯竭问题，但要是这些新建的房屋位于高风险地区且未投保，那么骨子上， 这对任何东说念主齐莫得匡助。

Right now, insurers are leaving entire states, pushing insurance prices up even for homes that are in less risky areas.

刻下， 保障公司正除去通盘州，这使得即使是在风险较低地区的房屋， 保障价钱也被推高。

There are places where we really shouldn't be building new housing, but there is also a lot we can do to adapt to the changing climate.

有些场地咱们照实不该再建新址，但同期咱们也有好多方法来得当景色变化。

And there's some innovation in that space.

在阿谁规模也有一些转换。

We spoke to the former CEO of Metro Mile, now the CEO of a new company called Stand Insurance.

咱们采访了Metro Mile的前首席推行官，他刻下是一家名为Stand Insurance的新公司的首席推行官。

His new venture takes the location of each home into account and suggests very specific modifications that can be done to reduce the likelihood of the home being destroyed in a weather event.

他的新创业公司会探究每栋房屋的位置，并提议具体的纠正建议，以裁汰房屋在天气事件中被糟塌的可能性。

- By helping the homeowner reduce the risk, the insurer is able to save money by not having to pay out as many claims, then being able to reduce the cost of insurance to the homeowner themselves.

- 通过匡助房东裁汰风险，保障公司大概通过减少理赔支拨从简资金，进而裁汰房东自己的保障用度。

And so insurance can actually play this really important role and serve as a mechanism to then drive investment in adaptation that we desperately need across the world.

因此，保障骨子上不错阐发这个相配过失的作用，并看成机制鞭策咱们全球过失需要的得当性投资。

- And they can do this by using improved risk models.

- 他们不错通过使用改进的风险模子来作念到这少量。

- We're modeling things down to an individual species of trees, and then based on the volume of that and its interaction with specific types of materials, we're trying to figure out what the actual likelihood of a structural fire is.

- 咱们正在将建模细化到单个树种，然后字据其体积以及与特定材料的互相作用，奋勉狡计出结构失火发生的骨子可能性。

This wouldn't be possible 10 plus years ago.

这在10多年前是无法收场的。

- It doesn't look like this trend of moving to risky Sunbelt states is going to reverse anytime soon.

- 这一迁往风险较高的阳光地带州的趋势，似乎不会在短期内逆转。

And on one hand, this realization that people are moving towards the riskiest areas in our country is surprising to me, as a host for a show about climate science, when I read articles and scientific papers on this topic, I often say to myself, "What are we doing?" But on the other hand, with all of the factors that go into one's decision to move and where, like wanting more space, job opportunities, and proximity to family to name a few, I can see why this is a thing.

一方面，看成一档对于景色科学节筹备主合手东说念主，当我读到对于这个话题的著作和科学论文时，东说念主们正朝着咱们国度风险最大的地区迁移这一事实让我感到骇怪，我频频自问：“咱们在作念什么？”但另一方面，探究到东说念主们决定搬家过甚筹备地的各式成分，比如念念要更多的空间、服务契机和蚁合家东说念主等，我能解析为什么会这么。

As stated earlier, I myself live in a city in the Sunbelt that's vulnerable to many climate hazards.

正如前边所说，我我方就住在阳光带的一个容易受到多种景色灾害影响的城市。

And ironically, I couldn't imagine myself living anywhere else.

而讪笑的是，我无法念念象我方生涯在其他场地。

So this, much like many other climate related issues, is complex.

是以，这就像许多其他与景色干系的问题一样，是复杂的。

And startups like Stand Insurance and risk models that incentivize more durable housing are a vital part of the solution and an important step in keeping people safe.

像Stand Insurance这么的初创公司和激勉更耐用住房的风险模子是处分决策的过失构成部分，亦然保障东说念主们安全的过失法子。

So I'm curious, do you know the climate risk for where you live?

是以我念念知说念，你知说念你居住的场地靠近哪些景色风险吗？

What steps have you taken to protect your home?

你遴荐了哪些门径来保护你的家？

And what would be a tipping point that will cause you to make the big decision to move?

是什么会成为促使你作念出搬家这个要紧决定的临界点呢？

I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments below and see you next time on Weathered.

我很念念不才方有计划区听到你的念念法，下次在《Weathered》节目中相遇。

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